A few U.S. industries still make practical use of pagers, but in the rest of the world, they have just about disappeared from view.

"There is hardly any use of pagers now by the general public in Western Europe," Deloitte Consulting analyst Paul Lee told Wireless NewsFactor. "Most of the pager type communication is now done over mobile phones, using SMS (short message service)."

If tradition holds, and Europe sets the stage for what is to come in the mobile market in North America, it is only a matter of time before pagers become obsolete in the U.S., as well.

Leapfrog Effect?

For now, it is not that hard to find a pager in the United States. Motorola (NYSE: MOT) still sells a handful of models, including the antiquated numeric-only gadgets. However, most mobile users are moving to more sophisticated messaging tools, such as two-way pagers and "communicator" devices.

Gartner analyst Todd Kort told Wireless NewsFactor that the evolution of messaging is likely to take a different path in North America than in Europe.

"The North American market may leapfrog SMS and go straight to instant messaging," Kort said.

Economics Lesson

Simple economics has played a major role in the decline of the pager.

"The selling point for pagers -- when they were still being marketed -- was that they were cheaper than mobile phones. But this was when the cost of ownership for a mobile phone was typically in the region of US$500," Lee said. "A pager was a way of maintaining mobility -- but on a lower budget."

In recent years, prices have plummeted for wireless phones. In fact, it is common to get a mobile phone for free with a service contract. And, the market has followed the best technology at the most affordable price.

"As the price of mobile phone ownership came down, [the] selling argument for pagers disappeared," Lee said. "Also coincident with this trend, the use of SMS starting rising."

Trading Places

SMS technology fills the same needs as paging, but offers more flexibility. The concept took off first in Japan and Europe, where the mobile markets are most mature.

"The result is that for Western Europe now, the usage of pagers is pretty unusual. But that doesn't mean that pagers have gone away forever," Lee said.

According to Lee, a few groups of users still rely on pagers for communication. Though it has shrunk, there is still a youth market because lengthy mobile phone conversations can be too expensive for some teens and college students. Lee believes they will convince mobile carriers to offer more data services as part of their available plans.

"Some mobile devices will become more data-centric -- designed for text communication and possibly also including a voice capability," Lee said.

Pager Evolution

To a certain extent, the "pager evolution" already has occurred.

Motorola's V200 Communicator looks more like a pager than a mobile phone. It includes a full QWERTY keyboard and has a headset that allows for voice calls. Nokia, too, has released a similar device in its 5510 -- which looks more like a gaming device than a communication tool.

"At the higher end, you could categorize RIM's BlackBerry (Nasdaq: RIMM) as a very high-end pager in that it's dedicated to text-based communications ," Lee said.

"If it's function, such as text communications to the person, then they've evolved," Lee said. "If it's the form factor, then they're either dead or, at least, dormant."